What is it?
In their critical thinking exercise that concludes "Groupthink", Warwick and Rogers (2018, pp. 173) invite us to reflect on why concepts such as that of groupthink can remain popular despite the absence of solid evidence.
Since we are asked to discuss theories "like groupthink," it will be useful to apply your explanation to more than the theory of groupthink.
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The question
- Discuss why theories like groupthink remain so popular despite a lack of empirical data to support them.
You have 16:00 minutes to plan, write, and edit a response to question 1.
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A useful strategy - as usual
Imagine you are writing for someone who has not read the question you have chosen to answer or the article that the question follows up. Your aim is to clearly communicate your response to that reader, so it might help to paraphrase the question at the start of your response to it.
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Reference
- Warwick, L. & Rogers, L. (2018). Skillful 4: Reading & Writing, Student's Book Pack (2nd. ed.). London: Macmillan Education
As we have seen, although there is some evidence that details in the groupthink theory might be correct, there is little evidence that the theory as a whole represents a real phenomenon in business, academic, political or other groups. NOr is group think the only example of a theory that remains popular despite little or no evidence. In fact, some theories seem to remain extremely popular even when the evidence seems (to me at least) to be be negative. The evidence for the existence of any life after death seems to me negative: it is not only that we have zero good evidence for that belief, but the evidence we do have seems to say that the theory must be wrong. And yet it remains extremely popular: I'm sure that a majority of people in my country continue to belief in life after death, as if death did not mean death, even Socrates and Plato held this belief. And there are the popular theories that underlie things like US president Richard Nixon's drug wars, which was also very popular when Thaksin Shinawatra used the theory that a brutal crackdown, even killing thousands, would reduce drug harms to society. The evidence does not support such theories, and yet it remains a very popular theory around the world that severe punishment is needed to reduce drug-related harms to society. So why do these theories remain so popular?
ReplyDeleteMy own theory about the irrational popularity of these theories is that they give simple answers to complex and deep questions. That is, they provide comfort that something can be done or that things are really going to work out well, and this is psychologically comforting - theories don't have to be true to be comforting.
Related to this idea that simple, comforting answers appeal is that some theories reflect ideas about what is just or moral. Believe in afterlife means that the bad people can be punished eventually, by perfect judges, even if they are never punished in this life on Earth. Theories like this not only comfort, but they help to make moral sense of the world, giving meaning that might otherwise be seen as missing.
As I was writing, it was very helpful to have thought of concrete examples of theories like groupthink. Someone also mentioned the example of the theory that countries should have import duties and tariffs, even though the evidence does not support the idea that they are good for the domestic economy of nations that impose such taxes - again, I think this remains a popular theory because it provides a simple answer that sounds reasonable, and it sounds virtuous because it's like protecting your own nation ,which is why millions of Americans cheered when Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, even though every economist said it was a disastrous policy for the health of the US economy - Trump's supporters preferred the simple, comforting answer to the complex, messy answer based on evidecen.
It is obvious that the popularities of unreasonable theories such as conspiracy ones have been increasing from year to year, although there is no or insufficient research to confirm the validity. One of the reasons behind this is that most people enjoy listening to fictional and exciting stories which might sound great and be enjoyable.
ReplyDeleteCovid-19 would be a perfect example that shows the virus was invented and accidentally released from labs in certain countries or a country. Although there are no prove on this outbreak, I personally believe that many people or the majority of world citizens have probably concurred with this conspiracy theory already as the impacts of this virus are beyond imagination.
Moreover, I also think that when it comes to situations or things that are difficult to explain, it is easy for us to trust any theories popping up in front of even though we might feel frustrated if we do not understand the root causes.
Although I'm not sure that the popularity "of unreasonable theories such as conspiracy ones have been increasing from year to year", I like Good's explanation for why this might be, which is quite different to the ideas that had occurred to me.
DeletePerhaps we read more about conspiracy theories today, but I'm not sure that that means that they are in fact more popular. Thousands of years ago, conspiracy theories were also popular. The Christian religion, and I suspect other religions, was connected with conspiracy theories from the beginning. Did Jesus really rise from the dead, or was it a conspiracy by his followers to save gain popularity by making it look like he had? Where the philosophers, mathematicians and other scholars of ancient Alexandria really plotting against the Christians in the city, as their bishops claimed as an excuse to burn the great library and murder people like the philosopher Hypatia? And before Hitler and the Nazis found such conspiracy theories a useful tool to exploit, Christians had a very long history of believing the Jews were conspiring to take over economies and eat Christian children, which reminds me of the truly bizarre things that Trump supporters believed about Democrats running child abuse rings from pizza shops. I don't know of any statistics on the popularity of conspiracy theories, but although it's a more exciting story to think it's all getting much worse than in the past, my suspicion is that people are about as prone to believe in conspiracy theories today as in the past.
I like Good's example about the origins of Covid. It's very controversial, and as Good explains it, the theory that it escaped from a lab, although lacking any solid evidence, is certainly more exciting than a boring story about natural evolution.
In my opinion, the reason that theories like groupthink are so popular might be because there are some results or evident that might not be concrete enough to prove the theories, but most people believe them. Like people believe in gods or religion, which is so popular as long as there are a lot of people who believe in it even without any evidence.
ReplyDeleteI think many people believe in theories like groupthink even though there is a little concrete evidence to support, because they share major parts of their believes and cultures. For example, many friends of mine believe in that they are the owner of their life and they value freedom. Therefore, they support 'self-determination theory' which describes human behaviors that are driven by their own motivations. However, as I have read many articles on neuroscience, they have discovered that humans make decisions by the chemicals in their brains.
ReplyDeleteThere are many theories like "groupthink" that lack of empirical data but people still believe in. I think this happens because people tend to use our own instinct and our past experiences to judge what is right or wrong. And sometimes, we believe in what other people say without thinking about it deeply. For me, I personally believe about "you get what you give". I think most of Thai families teach this theory to children. My parent told me since I was a child that I have to be nice to others and it will result back. I am not sure that it is real or not but for me if someone doing bad things to me, I might not do the same to them but just avoid talking to them instead.
ReplyDeleteThere are many theories that don't have an ample empirical data yet still popular because people tend to believe what they feel like to. For instance, many cultures believe in after life. Many Christians and Buddhists value what you did in this life, may resulted in rewarding or punishment in your after life. This ideas lead them to maintain moral behaviors under proper stages. Although there are no evidence or scientific facts that prove us after life exist, people still train the next generation to believe it is true. This kind of theories that don't have enough fact are produced and people still believe it because there are many things on earth that scientist cannot prove but there are exist. So these kind of theories are famous and well known.
ReplyDeleteNum, I think your idea that "there are many things on earth that scientist cannot prove but there are exist" is interesting, but can you give an example?
DeleteThere are many theories that remain so popular, although there are few data to support them. For example hundreds million of people in europe thinks that the earth is flat while the scientific evidence in that time is very limited. Eventually, there are well documented to confirm that theory is totally wrong. How can this phenomenon happen?
ReplyDeleteFrom Harari’s idea, sapien become the most powerful specie in the planet because of its unique cognitive ability to imagine and believe what does not really exist. That process form people into the large group from their concensus of what some imaginary things are.
This make me think that scientific evidences like high reliable statistics cannot persuade people to agree. Though its high validity, it still cannot surpass that cognitive process of human like culture or traddition. For instance, some traditional medicine like chinese herbal medicine still gain some popularity though it lacks of medical research supports.
Technology innovation is developed so far that method of collecting and researching are more effective. There is still challenging that how could it overmatch what our beliefs are.
I like Yok's example that "hundreds million of people in europe thinks that the earth is flat" because it seems to me an example of a popular belief that the evidence does not support. I'm not sure that people in Europe believed that the world was flat for about the past 2,500 years, but it remains a popular idea that sailors with Columbus and Magellan thought they would fall off the edge if they went too far. Both Magellan and Columbus knew perfectly well 500 years ago that the Earth was not flat but a sphere. Aristotle had known that and gave supporting arguments in his De Caelo (350BC) that drew on earlier Greek science. From then on, every educated Western person in Europe accepted that the Earth was a sphere, and yet the belief persists that into the Renaissance and discovery of America, it was commonly believed that the Earth was flat.
DeleteAgain, I like Good's idea that this story is more fun than the readily available true story. Perhaps it makes us seem smarter than our ancestors who we imagine could believe something that now seems so silly. But perhaps many of us are the silly ones for not checking whether the popular story is well-founded or not.
I also like Yok's citing of historian Yuval Noah Harari's ideas about the foundational importance of fictional stories, such as money, gods, nations, and so on, to explain the powerful organizational ability of humans that has made our species the dominant one on this planet. But I don't have time to elaborate on that now.
And Yok's example of traditional Chinese herbal medicines reminds of some of my friends who are sure that Brand's chicken stock has some magical properties - it seems to me a very expensive way to buy rather tasteless chicken stock, but clearly has good marketing. I'm not aware of any evidence that supports the popular belief that Brand's chicken stocks have any particular health benefit, but I often see people buying them in Tops.
DeleteAlthough theories like groupthink, a phenomenon that occurs when a group's desire for group harmony reduces decision-making and reasoning ability, do not have formal research to support them, they remain popular. Some of the possible causes are due to the influence of the majority or personal experience related to the theories.
ReplyDeleteWhen most people in one community strongly believe in something, it could also influence how others think about something. For example, almost everyone in a society believes that ghosts exist; this might affect the beliefs of the minority group in the community as well.
Plus, someone may have related experience related to a theory, which may only be a correlation but not a cause of one another.
I think theories with no clear evidence are so popular because of many reasons. One reason may be that some people may want to find meaningful theories to define something that is hard to explain the reason of it occurring, for example religion defining the reason why we exist and the purpose of our existences. In other cases, it may be because people have different backgrounds, upbringings, and moral compasses that effect their beliefs, and in turn the popularity of a theory.
ReplyDeleteHaving also just read Good's ideas above, I am wondering how Yujin's ideas about "backgrounds, upbringings, and moral compasses" might apply to the example of the popular belief that Covid was created in a Chinese laboratory from which it escaped, or in some versions of the theory, was released.
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