The information from Worldometer (n.d.) predicts that Thailand's population would continually decrease from 70 million to 65 million in 2050, approximately 7% of the total. It doesn’t seem like a huge problem. Nevertheless, the data also shows falling fertility all over the country. While the population aged 60 and over is predicted to increase by 35% in 2050, the proportion of the aged population in society is rising rapidly. It’s called "aged society," a society crammed full of aged citizens in the system. Do you believe this is going to happen in reality or is it just an illusion?
The first reason that supports this theory is the research from Ajou University. Jungho Kim's research titled Female education and its impact on fertility illustrates how education relates to fertility. According to Kim's research, a woman's education is inversely related to fertility because they know how to control and prevent pregnancy. Unintended pregnancy also decreases as well. As can be seen in developed countries such as Japan, US, and others, these countries have a low birth rate. I would like to give you a short example from Japan. At present, Japan is facing the lowest birth rate in its history. Most young people tend to not have children due to the fact that they cannot afford the living costs, and there are few opportunities in business and career for young people in Japan as well.
Second, the enhancement of health care has been highly effective for the number of population. Medical care has fully developed from the past. A lot of fatal diseases can be cured or prevented. We can get rid of deadly spreading diseases. Many vaccines are made to cure diseases. Medical care has improved in the last few centuries. All medical services are easily accessible for everyone. This medical advance helps to increase human life expectancy compared to the past. Because of medical advances, the average life expectancy increased from 79 to 83 years.
Lastly, the consequence of immigration has been the shrinking of the young population. Recently, you might have read the news about the campaign to get out of the country, which is being supported by hundreds of thousands of Thai students and the young generation who are against and disappointed with the government’s management. Some of them believe moving to another country might provide more opportunities for growth in business and career. So, the new generation of Thais is tending to move abroad more and more. This phenomenon is called brain drain. This situation is happening in Japan right now. With few opportunities of growing up in business, most teenagers also want to leave the country.
All of this is primarily the result of an aging society. It seems like a minor issue, doesn't it? You might think how the wrinkled-skin elderly scared me. The wrinkled skin of the elder isn’t the point. The scary part of this story is its consequences instead. An explanation follows about aged society; first, assume that you are older and nearly ready to retire. What do you want when you retire? It is such an easy and simple question. And of course, money is always important. If the government has an unclear scenario prepared for a large number of elderly people, personal saving plans should be high concerns. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) demonstrates that most Thai households have a fairly low rate of savings. Only 0.5% of the total households have more than 2.8 million bath of income. Furthermore, according to the National Savings Fund (NSF), Gen Y Thais prefer to spend 69% of their salaries on needless luxury items. Obviously, this overspending behavior leaves most young people lacking savings. So, what scares you more than poverty? Then, the country crowded with old people couldn't afford their health care and the government could not provide help. That is such a terrible tragedy. In parts of the economy, many industrial companies will decide to move their production bases to another country that has a lot of labor and is cheaper. If we allow neighbors to come and work here, there are still a lot of immigration rules that prevent them from just coming and working here as workers. It will badly affect Thailand's economy, such as GDP. We will be a poor third world country.
In order to face an aged society, we might need to learn from an experienced country like Japan again. As far as I know, Japan has just changed its immigration rules to persuade skilled foreigners to come to their country and give them a lot of privileges as natives of Japan. The policy is one example of management that works effectively. In terms of health care, the tax premium in Japan is higher than in Thailand in every way, so the policy covers almost all medical services.
Back to the current situation of Thailand, I think the best way to handle an aged society is through long run planning. First, the government might start with improving infrastructure for supporting elderly people. Next, the government should spend money carefully to provide medical services at a low price for everyone. For anything else, the authorities will decide it further. Getting old is inevitable. Not only do we have to prepare in terms of money, but also in terms of health. So, I recommend exercising to improve yourself stronger and better every day. This is also the best way to prevent illness and to avoid spending a lot of money on sickness. It is better to work hard and then live to spend it more than to work hard but spend it all on a doctor.
References
Jacobson, B. (2019, July 9). Will We Live Longer in the Future?. Future Trends https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/will-we-live-longer-future
Kim, J. (2016, February). Female education and its impact on fertility. IZA. https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-education-and-its-impact-on-fertility.pdf
Nargund, G. (2009). Declining birth rate in Developing countries: A radical policy re-think is required. Facts, views & vision in ObGyn, 1(3), 191–193. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/
Semuels, A. (2017, July 20). The Mystery of Why Japanese People Are Having So Few Babies. The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/07/japan-mystery-low-birth-rate/534291/
Thailand population. (n.d.) worldometers https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/thailand-population/
Uncertainty for the elderly. (2021, March 22). Bangkok post https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2087527/uncertainty-for-the-elderly
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