We have just read part of the introduction to Steven Levitt's famous 2003 essay, "Where have all the criminals gone?". At the end of that section of Levitt's essay, he gives a table of explanations by experts suggesting why the crime rate dropped by almost 50% in the US in the 1990s. The table lists the suggested explanation along the number of times it was cited in large newspapers from 1991 to 2001.
This is the table:
| Crime-Drop Explanation | Number Of Citations |
| 1. Innovative policing strategies | 52 |
| 2. Increased reliance on prisons | 47 |
| 3. Changes in crack and other drug markets | 33 |
| 4. Aging of the population | 32 |
| 5. Tougher gun control laws | 32 |
| 6. Strong economy | 28 |
| 7 Increased number of police | 26 |
| 8. All other explanations (increased use of capital punishment, concealed-weapons laws, gun buybacks. and others) | 34 |
Levitt then invites us to guess which of the listed explanations we think are the right ones.
Do that now. In a comment, write down:
- your guess as to which "three [explanations] can be shown to have contributed to the drop in crime" (Levitt & Dubner, 2006, p. 121). If you choose from "all other explanations", write down the specific explanation that you think is the reason.
and - your guess about what "one of the greatest measurable causes of the crime drop" is, the one that is not on Levitt's list because it "didn't receive a single newspaper mention" (ibid.).
__________
References
Levitt, S. & Dubner, S. (2006). Where have all the criminals gone? In Freakonomics (p. 119 – 121). London: Penguin Books. [Full essay is p. 115 – 144]
In my opinion,I think that the tree reason that contribute the drop in crime are Strong economy, Increased number of police,and All other explanations such as increased use of capital punishment, concealed-weapons laws, gun buybacks, and others. As for the measure that cause the crime drop, I think it is the advance in information technology that can help the police to searching and proving the criminals more easier and faster and make people realize that if they commit crime,they will be captured.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this database,I think that the three reasons can be shown to be a cause of the drop in crime are increased reliance on prisons, tougher gun control laws and the strong economy. Another one of the greatest measurable causes of the crime drop is the increasing of employment rate in the US.
ReplyDeleteI think the three reason that make the crime drop are innovative policing strategies,increase number of police and increase use of capital punishment. And i think one of the greatest measurable causes of the crime drop is the laws is more strict than before. It's make people fear about the strong punishment.
ReplyDeleteI guess that Innovative policing strategies, Changes in crack and other drug markets and Increased number of police can make crime drop.
ReplyDeleteFor the second question, I guess that campaigns, which tell everyone that crime is illegal and they mustn't do, can be one of the greatest measureable causes of the crime drop because when people know that it's a bad thing, they won't do.
I thinks that crime drop because police has new innovation strategies, so criminal may be easily to be catch. Moreover, I agree with the better economy can reduce crime rate because people can gain the money from their jobs. Finally, I also agree that the increased number of police officers affects the drop of crime because they increases the chance to catch the criminal. In my opinion, moreover than "Steven Levitt's famous 2003 essay", I believe that the crime reduction is came from more severe punishment regulation, so criminal will more afraid to do crime.
ReplyDeleteI think the best three causes of crime drop in 1990s in US are Innovative policing strategies, tougher gun control laws, and increased number of police. Moreover, I also guess an another reason is increasing of reliance on prisons has influence on crime drop too.
ReplyDeleteI guess the three main causes that can make the crime drop in the US during 1990s are having the strong economy, innovative policing strategies, and changes in crack and other drug markets. Moreover I also think that the number of crime decrease because people have better education than on the past. Therefore, they can realize that which actions are right or wrong.
ReplyDeleteI think that three explanation from Levitt and Dubner information are innovative policing strategies, changes in crack and other drug markets, and strong economy. In my opinion, the greatest of measurable cause of crime drop is strong punishment because it can make afraid to people who would be murderer or something like that.
ReplyDeleteI suppose that because of all other explanations (increased use of capital punishment, concealed-weapons laws, gun buybacks and others)crime drops
ReplyDeleteMy guess is the third one "Chages in crack and other drug markets. This is because I think in pass US Government may do many hard things to agaist the drug market but it change overtime. Also "Innovative policing strategies" is could be the explanation. Last one, "Strong economy" is the other important explanation because of its changing to industrial economy.
ReplyDeleteI think the three important explanations to contributed the crime drop is Innovative policing strategies,Increased number of police and Strong economy. Because if the policing strategies become more strong people will be afraid of the punishment.
ReplyDeleteThank you to everyone for sharing your guesses.
ReplyDeleteAs we read Levitt's essay, you can see how many of your guesses were right and how many wrong.
One of the most popular here is the strong economy, which is the first suggested reason that Levitt discusses after his introduction.
Were all those people above, like many professionals in the US, who guessed that the strong economy reduced crime right or wrong?
What Levitt say about this?
Does he convince you? Why or why not?