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Let's start with a question: which is healthier, tea or coffee?Question 2: how confident are you of your answer?
Had you asked me these questions just a few years ago, my answers would have been that tea, especially green tea, is healthier than coffee. In fact, I believed, as I think was a popular belief, that coffee was unhealthy in some ways, and that tea was generally good for health. And I would have been fairly confident. You might already have guessed that these confident beliefs were wrong.
I actually started seeing solid, well-designed research papers on the health effects of coffee a few years ago now, and I have admit, as daily coffee addict (and I do mean addict - I have a physical, if not psychological, dependence on the drug) I was very pleased to discover that as more research was done, coffee in moderate amounts, say 2 to 6 cups a day, was almost entirely good for health.
But until this morning, I had not realised how very weak were the common health claims made for tea, especially green tea. It turns out, according to a comprehensive analysis of meta-studies by Aaron E. Carroll in the New York Times article "Health Benefits of Tea? Here’s What the Evidence Says," that whilst the evidence does not support "strongly recommend[ing] that anyone take up tea," it might offer some health benefit and is unlikely to be harmful (2015b). This did surprise me, but Carroll gives links to reliable sources all the way through - mainly studies he cites - and he certainly seems to know what he's talking about. Carroll, a professor of pediatrics at Indiana University School of Medicine, conveniently gives a link to an earlier article he wrote, "More Consensus on Coffee’s Benefits Than You Might Think," in which he reviews the evidence for the health benefits of coffee (2015a). The evidence supported ideas about coffee did not surprise me, but I liked seeing them all in one place, again with links to the studies that support them.
Now I'm wondering why I ever believed that coffee was unhealthy and green tea was healthy with such confidence. I guess it was just that everyone around me accepted those beliefs, and advertising contributed its bit. More importantly, until a few years ago, when my very real addiction to coffee worried me enough to push me to do some research into the facts about coffee, I hadn't realised it was largely healthy. I drink at least two large cups of strong, fresh brewed black coffee every day, and have for almost forty years now. It was a very welcome surprise to find out that I'd been wrong about coffee, and that many people still were. But the surprise this morning on learning that the popular belief in the health benefits of green tea is not at all solidly supported by evidence was a lot more surprising. To balance things out a bit, I could also tell a story or two about the less pleasant consequences of actually being addicted to coffee, but perhaps in another post.
It was a great joy, and very refreshing, to have my third coffee today when I saw my visiting guests off around 7:00 PM.
Now, which are you going to opt for: tea or coffee?
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My question is:
Provisional question: What do you think the New York Times story I've chosen to respond to is about?
(If we can have provisional thesis statements, why not a provisional question?)
My real question is:
Do you check your beliefs about facts against solid evidence?
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References
Carroll, A. E. (2015a, May 11). More Consensus on Coffee’s Benefits Than You Might Think. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/upshot/more-consensus-on-coffees-benefits-than-you-might-think.html
Carroll, A. E. (2015b, October 5). Health Benefits of Tea? Here’s What the Evidence Says. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/upshot/what-the-evidence-tells-us-about-tea.html
Wow!! I like your idea about having a provisonal question, feeling challenged. Because it's look like a barber'pole, I guess this story might be about decoration for a barber shop.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I really enjoy provisional guess although I always get a fault doubt.
DeleteThanks Feem - the barber's pole did come to my mind, even though I knew what the story is actually about.
DeleteActually, at first I also think like Feem's ,this picture looks like a barber'pole. but actually, I have another one idea. The story might be about a illusion picture.
ReplyDeleteI probably would have gone for something like Patt's idea - if not illusions, op art, which was a bit of a fad when I was in high school. (Fads are what you brainstormed so very well this morning with the Tamagotchi (not sure about the spelling of that), Furby and so on.
DeleteI have to meet my youngest sister and her family now, so might not get to write my real blog post for a few more hours.
ReplyDeleteI hope the kids like Japanese.
What an exhausting afternoon. I enjoy taking a friend and his eight-year-old son out, and that's fairly challenging, but my sister has three similarly aged children and an older one. The three young ones, six, eight and eleven, are all like Ea. I have great admiration for full time parents! Although my nieces speak as much Thai as Ea does English, they seemed to get on very well after a bit of initial shyness.
DeleteNow I need a short rest.
I am thinking of illusion, but this may different because this is a motion picture - the illusion is just a picture which make we think it moves (actually, it doesn't), so I'm not sure. By the way, Alice in the wonderland also comes up in my mind.
ReplyDeleteIn general, I barely do check my beliefs about facts against solid evidence as sometimes I don’t have enough time, I’m lazy or even I think those facts are not much of importance.
ReplyDeleteHowever, beyond those reasons, I tend to believe most facts since most people accepted or thought they're right without more checking.
I view that the second question we should pay attention after answering your question as provided above is how we can avoid false beliefs.
Below is an interesting answer for the second question. Moreover, I think it could be an answer for question “Should we (children, students, citizens, human beings) trust authorities such as books, teachers, parents, officials and governments? That is, should we believe what they say?” in the Peter’s previous blog post Should we trust authorities? .
For Buddhists, Kalama Sutta is an advice that the Buddha gave us to deal with doubtful matters or avoid fallacies. The main idea of this doctrine is any information and knowledge should not be accepted as truth suddenly without additional investigation.
Such advice by the Buddha is
“Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.”
If there's a solid evidence that coffee is good for your health, I will share this to people I know so they don't need to worry about the side affects of coffee anymore.
ReplyDelete